Israel is the Mouse That Roared

Netanyahu depends on Trump's favor but also feels free to ignore his demands

Israel is the mouse that roared. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu depends on US support for his country’s security and his political survival—Israel couldn’t attack Iran without the US military protecting it against Iranian missiles and drones—but he also feels free to ignore President Trump’s demands whenever he fears that going along with Trump would create a political problem for him at home.

On Sunday, after maintaining a calculated silence, Bibi announced that Israel would not accept the 15-point peace plan announced recently by Trump’s Board of Peace, which calls for Hamas to fully disarm in return for Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

All the critics who said Joe Biden should have done more to curb the Israeli assault on Gaza (a point that even some Biden administration veterans now concede) should realize it’s easier said than done. Even Trump has trouble controlling Bibi, despite their close political alliance.

Ultimately all politics is local, and Bibi can’t afford to withdraw Israeli troops from Gaza without blowing up his electoral coalition. His survival in office—and his ability to avoid conviction on corruption charges—depends on the support of far-right parties that, far from wanting to withdraw Israeli troops from Gaza, want to reintroduce Israeli settlers into the enclave.

In fairness, Hamas isn’t really interested in disarmament either, no matter what its leaders may claim. It is intent on maintaining its hold on the population of Gaza crowded into the 30% of the territory which is not controlled by Israel. Not even the full-scale Israeli assault after the barbaric October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel could destroy Hamas or even dislodge it from its control over the Palestinian population, and you can be damn sure the terrorist group is not going to concede at the negotiating table what Israel was unable to achieve on the battlefield.

Both sides are engaged in gamesmanship by insisting that the other go first—Hamas to disarm, Israel to withdraw—with both knowing that it will never happen.

All this was obvious from the beginning, which makes Trump’s boasts about how his Board of Peace is bringing peace to the world laughably hollow. Recall what he wrote on July 7 after the Board of Peace announced its plan for Gaza with Hamas concurrence:

“Today, the Board of Peace reached a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza. This is a monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY…. CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL ON THIS AMAZING DEVELOPMENT, THAT EVERYBODY SAID COULD NEVER BE ACHIEVED!”

That boast is about as credible as Trump’s regular claims to have won the Iran War and reopened the Strait of Hormuz… which also keep blowing up.